Mint Markets · Business · 2026-09-12
The market-implied odds of a hike have risen dramatically, from 59% a week ago
The market-implied odds of a hike have risen dramatically, from 59% a week ago to 87% on Friday. Rates have already been climbing, with the 10-year Treasury yield zooming from 4.4% at the end of June to nearly 5% today. On Thursday, the 30-year yield settled at 5.36%, its highest level since June 2004.
Why it matters. Rising interest rates and market-implied odds of a rate hike directly impact borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and government debt.
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